PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might reduce its daily vessel movements to approximately 29 in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its new administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta, who assumed her role on Sept. 7, indicated this possibility amid rising El Niño pressures that threaten reservoir levels. The canal depends on freshwater from rainfall-fed lakes to operate its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already started implementing phased capacity reductions following below-average precipitation across the watershed.
Beginning Sept. 3, the canal offered nine daily Neopanamax slots along with 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34. From Sept. 15 onward, Panamax availability will decrease to 23 slots, bringing the overall daily capacity down to 32. These adjustments are a response to diminished rainfall during Panama’s wet season and reduced inflows into the canal’s watershed. Authorities are employing water-saving strategies and tighter booking controls while keeping a close eye on Gatun Lake and other vital water sources.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 daily transits up to June 30, based on official operational data. Between October and June, it recorded 10,726 transits, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year. These figures predate the recent rainfall decline that has prompted stricter operational limits. The waterway, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, plays a critical role in international trade, handling containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water scarcity forces transit restrictions
The canal’s locks depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during crossings. Reservoir levels directly influence how many vessels can transit during extended dry spells. During the intense drought of 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s levels reached historic lows. Capacity improved once rainfall increased and conservation measures helped stabilize water availability for both canal operations and public use.
In addition, the canal has modified vessel draft limits as part of its water management efforts. On Sept. 4, authorities postponed a planned reduction of the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains effective after assessing Gatun Lake’s levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits restrict how deeply loaded ships can sit in the water, making them a key operational constraint, especially for vessels carrying heavier cargo.
Changes in booking procedures follow capacity restrictions
As capacity becomes more limited, the canal revised its booking and auction rules. Daily auction slots now categorize vessels by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When other conditions are equal, fully loaded container ships with higher capacities are given priority in Neopanamax allocations. Officials encourage vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as reduced capacity could lead to longer waiting times. Having a confirmed reservation remains the only way to guarantee a transit date.
A further reduction to 29 ships per day has not yet been mandated. The administrator described this as a potential restriction for February or March if dry conditions do not improve. The canal’s experts continue to monitor rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing additional operational adjustments. Panama is also advancing the Río Indio reservoir project to boost long-term water storage, part of the country’s broader initiative to secure water resources for canal operations and more than half of its population.